VWBB - The future of space combat

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Posted by nietzshe on 07-06-2003 05:46 PM:

The future of space combat

By the end of this century AI technology is likely to have far surpassed human intelligence. Onboard computers will make all operational decisions on spacecraft. In fact we are probably only a generation away from all aerial combat sorties being carried out by pilot less drones. This means no Freespace, Wing Commander or Star Wars style space fighters with human pilots and no heroic captains like Kirk, Admirarl Petrarch, Picard, et al making decisions.

Humans will merely be passengers on future spacecraft, and maybe not even in the physical sense. It may eventually become possible to upload a persons consciousness into a computer database on a spaceship embarking on an interplanetary journey and then download it again into an artificial body at the end of the journey.

I think current space-combat games like Freespace, Terminus, Echelon, Star Trek and Star Wars will look embarrassingly simplistic in the future.

nietzshe

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Posted by GalacticEmperor on 07-06-2003 08:05 PM:

Um... okay, thanks for the depressing prophecy.

Welcome to the VWBB. How long have you been playing FS?

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Posted by Spicious on 07-06-2003 09:48 PM:

Re: The future of space combat

quote:
Originally posted by nietzshe
I think current space-combat games like Freespace, Terminus, Echelon, Star Trek and Star Wars will look embarrassingly simplistic in the future.

Of course they will, they're arcade space shooters. The designers took out the physics in the name of fun.
Anyway, people will have completely forgotten about all them by the time your depressing prophecy comes to pass.

Posted by ShadowWolf_IH on 07-06-2003 09:51 PM:

actually, we may very well be in the last generation of manned fighters. And it isn't AI that will be doing the fighting, it will be men in simulator like pods controlling everything. Eventually though, i can see combat being run by droids.

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Posted by ltnarol on 07-06-2003 10:52 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i can see combat being run by droids.

I can't, not if anyone has brains. Giving that kind of control to an artificial intelligence is far too dangerous, theres always the risk that they'll go rogue and turn the world into a man vs machine battleground. They can't have emotions and thus they have only logic, they can't have patriotism - only self preservation. You do the math

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Posted by Woolie Wool on 07-07-2003 12:12 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by ltnarol
I can't, not if anyone has brains. Giving that kind of control to an artificial intelligence is far too dangerous, theres always the risk that they'll go rogue and turn the world into a man vs machine battleground. They can't have emotions and thus they have only logic, they can't have patriotism - only self preservation. You do the math

Human pilots will ALWAYS be able to crush AI opponents. AI cannot adapt, plan, etc. like a human can. A human can formulate strategies to counter a new adversary in a way that robots cannot. Also, humans have emotions. Strong emotions can drive a human to do the seemingly impossible. The only benefit of AI is that they can be deployed in huge numbers and drones are far more expendable, being inhuman machines and all.

Posted by Woolie Wool on 07-07-2003 12:15 AM:

Re: The future of space combat

quote:
Originally posted by nietzshe

I think current space-combat games like Freespace, Terminus, Echelon, Star Trek and Star Wars will look embarrassingly simplistic in the future

nietzshe

They ARE embarrasingly simplistic by real-life standards. Pilots in a dogfight fight at such long ranges that they cannot even SEE each other without instruments like radar (I'm talking ranges of 5 miles or more!). The winner is pretty much the first person to successfully hit the other plane with a missile (and only one will suffice to bring a combat plane down).

Posted by ltnarol on 07-07-2003 12:53 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by Woolie Wool
Human pilots will ALWAYS be able to crush AI opponents. AI cannot adapt, plan, etc. like a human can. A human can formulate strategies to counter a new adversary in a way that robots cannot.

I disagree, the "AI" that we do battle against in FS2 is pretty simplistic compared to true artificial intelligence. A computer can adapt, enemy maneuvers can be recorded and analyzed mid dogfight without hitching performance (read: multiple processing units). To adapt, all that a computer has to do is analyze the maneuver in terms of timing and turn rate to get a good prediction of where to shoot next time the maneuver is pulled. As far as planning goes, have you ever seen a computer play chess? Granted, the rules here a bit different, the only limits are the performance specs of the fighters and the obstacles in the environment; computers can still crunch through thousands of possible options in fractions of a second, the computer will always be 5 steps ahead of a human pilot. The same applies to strategies.

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Posted by nietzshe on 07-07-2003 01:41 AM:

u are right, the AI is crazy some times

True, even though pilots might do crazy things too, like become schizoid in flight, defect, etc. the AI can also become crazy. While i was playing today Freespace-2 my wingman Alpha-3 suddenly started to hit himself against the Colossus.
It shows you what can happened to computerised self-driven space-fighters.
So just to be on the safe side i think we'd be better off with space-figthers by men not droids :-)

nietzshe

quote:
Originally posted by ltnarol
I can't, not if anyone has brains. Giving that kind of control to an artificial intelligence is far too dangerous, theres always the risk that they'll go rogue and turn the world into a man vs machine battleground. They can't have emotions and thus they have only logic, they can't have patriotism - only self preservation. You do the math

Posted by LOAPhReAk on 07-07-2003 02:56 AM:

all you need is a good programmer.

if my_iff != target_iff and target_is_not_a_civilian
then kill

a little simplistic, but it should suffice

Posted by Hades on 07-07-2003 03:14 AM:

It hit itself against the Collossus because the AI isn't very good. A good ai would NEVER do that.

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Posted by killadonuts on 07-07-2003 03:25 AM:

Re: Re: The future of space combat

quote:
Originally posted by Woolie Wool
They ARE embarrasingly simplistic by real-life standards. Pilots in a dogfight fight at such long ranges that they cannot even SEE each other without instruments like radar (I'm talking ranges of 5 miles or more!). The winner is pretty much the first person to successfully hit the other plane with a missile (and only one will suffice to bring a combat plane down).

And even by Freespace standards, 5 miles is a long radius for a dogfight. That would be a little over 8 clicks. So imagine that.

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Posted by Woolie Wool on 07-07-2003 06:10 AM:

To give you an idea of the distances between opponents in aerial combat today, here are the ranges of three air-to-air missiles used by the USAF:

AIM-9 Sidewinder: 9 miles
AIM-27 Sparrow: 12 (or was it 16?) miles
AIM-57 Phoenix: 60 miles

Posted by Knight Templar on 07-07-2003 06:15 AM:

And that all has to do with fuel, right? not range of the targeting sensors :-\

you know, that'd be a neat SCP/Tbl hack.

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Posted by Woolie Wool on 07-07-2003 06:30 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by Knight Templar
And that all has to do with fuel, right? not range of the targeting sensors :-\

you know, that'd be a neat SCP/Tbl hack.

Yup. Our combat craft's radar has an even greater range.

Posted by hayabusa on 07-07-2003 03:24 PM:

I think the people will be the one who decides. Computers "think" in binary and they cannot quickly ( if already) react to a situation their designers didn`t expect to happen. Easy deceiving with IFF could be deadly with computers reacting in the way foreseen by designers.
So, the people will decide. Of course it`s hard to expect they will be on board of the spacecraft, they will rather be in some sort of command points. On the other hand there is one thing in the space we musn`t forget about : distances. Earth is relatively close to the Sun, but even though it takes for a beam of light more than 8 minutes to travel from the Sun to the Earth. Now imagine a battle near Jupiter, commanded from the Earth...

Another point is money. As long as conquering the space isn`t much profitable ( yes, it`s significant achievement of technology, it has political profits, but its costs are tremendous when we begin to talk about the money). But I think that in not So many years it will be profitable ( even if starting amounts of money remain high) and then it should develop quickly.

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Posted by ~[)ragon~ on 07-07-2003 11:04 PM:

I have an Idea lets forget about this and enjoy life and stop looking into the future!!! it will never happen if were always lookin to far ahead start takin days one step at a time

Posted by nietzshe on 07-08-2003 01:02 AM:

Mig-29 Fulcrum missiles have longer range 150 miles

Mig-29 Fulcrum missiles have longer range 150 miles, the thing is that I don't think conventional missiles will be used in space, it would be laser beams, or flat-guns. but who knows.
I think space-combat dogfights will be manned, i mean we are still too far from creating AI so advanced, and it would be too mechanical, i mean unemotional war

nietzshe

quote:
Originally posted by Woolie Wool
To give you an idea of the distances between opponents in aerial combat today, here are the ranges of three air-to-air missiles used by the USAF:

AIM-9 Sidewinder: 9 miles
AIM-27 Sparrow: 12 (or was it 16?) miles
AIM-57 Phoenix: 60 miles

Posted by Kail on 07-27-2003 05:37 PM:

Well, conscious AI will eventually emerge, question is whether we want that to happen or not. It's like human cloning, it happens and you can't do anything about it.
What I've been asking myself is why the FS ships aren't remotely controlled since they seem to have such great simulators aboard the capital ships and since Command is always there on the radio. Only the Snipes nebula mission would be the one you'd have to run "in real life" so to speak. Waste of human lives the way they do things in FS, far from any real military situation.

Posted by Ghostavo on 07-27-2003 10:34 PM:

Well... now that someone pulled this up...

quote:
Originally posted by ltnarol
As far as planning goes, have you ever seen a computer play chess?

Yes, but you've forgot that any chess program tries to see all the possible moves (to a certain limit), which can give it an edge against its oponent.
The strongest GM's like Kramnik, Kasparov, Anand, etc... can easily outsmart any chess program to date...
Of course there are always some victories in favor of the programs against these champions... after all, they are only human (not invencible)!!!

This adds to what I was about to say, chess is a game with limits, rules, etc... on the other hand a real live situation doesn't have that sort of limits or rules.

For instance... I've tried to put Fritz 7.0 against me to his fullest strength, but after 8 moves or so, he tryed so hard to analise his currrent position that his time ran out!! This is uncommon, but it discribes the "picture" very nicely.

Computers are still too slow and too "dumb" to even chalenge a human in any game... let alone to a dogfight!

And as ~[)ragon~ said and very well, let's not think about how will the future be, but let us enjoy the present as it is by playing these "simplistic computer games"!!

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